Archive for the ‘PV Technology’ Category

The standard PV panel design is essentially a 30+ year old packaging scheme, whether you are talking about crystalline technology or thin-film (glass on glass). It is a form factor that has served the industry well up to this point, but as my readers know, I believe it is keeping the pace of PV adoption from increasing further.  I have long been a proponent of new, lightweight, aesthetically pleasing, and easier-to-install PV modules.  While flexible thin-film has enabled some interesting products from a limited number of vendors, desirable economics and durability for these products is a long way off.

SolarClover - A New Paradigm for Solar Energy

Enter Armageddon Energy with their unique, well thought-out product, the SolarClover. Clover is a completely new form factor which packages high performance mono-crystalline PV cells on a hexagonal , extruded plastic-aluminum sandwich backing, with a unique polyamid front sheet. Heavy, costly glass and metal framing is eliminated and the resulting product is unbelievably light. The hexagonal modules are then placed on a simple metal tripod racking system which utilizes 3 quick bolts for assembly.  Each tripod has a micro inverter and holds about 450kW of rated output, takes less than 10 minutes to assemble and less than $100/kW to install. Industry average for residential solar installation is $300+/kW to install. Plug and play solar deployment has arrived.

SolarClover shipment packaging is IKEA style flat cardboard boxes – an entire 1kW AC system fits into a standard contractor van, in one truck roll.  And while it’s tempting to look at this product for the DIY market in an outlet like Home Depot, Armageddon is targeting professional tradesmen like roofers, plumbers and electricians to handle installations.  The company provides a clever and patented low cost tool for determining siting applicability – shading, roof orientation, etc. – called the Clover Analysis Tool (or CAT) which substantially lowers the challenges for experienced contractors already servicing the general residential market place but with limited solar energy experience.

SolarClover is centered on providing visually pleasing PV systems to the smaller size residential market where a standard 1kW to

Quick Plug and Play Assembly - click to enlarge

2KW Clover system can add enormous cost reduction to electricity consumers with high utility rates, especially in places where peak demand charges are present. Pricing is currently just under $6/Wac with the expectation that scale-up of manufacturing and operations will reduce cost substantially.

Mark Goldman is the high energy founder of Armageddon who clearly has a strong product development and marketing capability and understanding of this market niche.  “We’re focused on the utility consumer who only needs a small PV system, and we wanted to provide those consumers with a system that can be easily installed by their current contractors and is a really elegant addition to the architecture of their home.  We look at the electric grid as a system we’re optimizing for the small residential consumer who will experience significantly lower electricity bills and a quick return on their solar investment.”

Interestingly, Solar Clover has real applicability in the military market in operational and forward deployed environments where simplicity, light weight, quick set up and break down, and high performance are key attributes.  More on this later.

Solar Clover is not without its technology and market challenges. They include things like solar cell packing density, snow loading durability and a small installation cost (difficult for installers who are used to commanding larger invoices).  These are engineering and marketing issues common in new technology commercialization and Mark has a solid roadmap to mitigate and overcome these challenges as volume increases and his technology partners innovate along with him.

This is exactly the kind of form factor innovation that the industry needs to significantly broaden the appeal of PV through lower cost, ease of installation and aesthetics. Early adopters, this is your product and who knows, maybe this is what I will put on my own roof during a planned renovation.

With the collapse of publicly traded solar stocks in the last 4 months, the general business press has been buzzing with speculation about mergers and acquisitions. But these articles have missed some basic industry drivers and circumstances that may point to minimal M&A activity. A good example includes a recent Bloomberg article about how First Solar is a take over target for GE and Siemens as FSLR’s share price has fallen from $156 in Q1 2011 to $36 today losing enormous value.

First Solar - M&A Target?

While I have tremendous respect for what FSLR has accomplished and believe that high performance thin-film will be a factor at some point in the longer term, rapidly changing market dynamics have caught up with the company.  Manufactured costs of crystalline silicon PV modules have dropped much more rapidly than thin-film as a category or FSLR could match.  Indeed, FSLR’s stated guidance was to decrease manufacturing cost by $0.05 per Watt during the last 18 months compared to a $0.20 – $0.35 per Watt decrease by a variety of crystalline providers.

Solar thin-film as a general category is lower in efficiency, which requires more land/space, balance of systems (inverters, racking, wiring, permitting, administration) and as such, requires a module sale price differential from a crystalline module of approximately 30% to remain competitive. Currently the delta between the 2 module technology types is only 6% – 10% in the spot and long-term contract markets respectively.

The thin-film business model as a general category in the current environment is broken. (exception may be Solar Frontier) While First Solar has their downstream project development and EPC capability glossing over the module manufacturing cost problem, this will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future. And with behemoths like Samsung, LG, Hyundai and now Foxconn about to enter the market with aggressive low cost capabilities and significant resources, the pace of cost reductions will continue.

I would be more than surprised if GE (especially since GE has its own thin-film effort with an integrated BOS approach) or Siemens or similar entities would buy FSLR with the current market dynamics in play. If the price becomes low enough, they may have interest in FSLR’s substantial project pipeline but that would need to be significantly lower than the current $36 price.

Overall, acquisitions in the PV module manufacturing industry don’t make much sense even at the current low valuations unless there is valuable IP present or there is a substantial project pipeline as a result of downstream integration. This is because the barriers to market entry are quite low. Manufacturing equipment used throughout the supply chain is generally American and European made off-the-shelf production machines with willing and able companies such as Applied Materials ready to supply. Additionally, most Asian solar manufacturers have no brand value established worth purchasing. Foxcon’s entry in the PV industry is a good example where no existing company or capacity was purchased, opting instead for the latest, highest efficiency manufacturing platforms available while partnering with an existing Chinese poly silicon company for raw material supply.

US Department of Defense agencies are leading the nation on the renewable energy front. With plans to have 25% renewable energy use by 2025 and spending $15.2B on DoD energy in 2010, this is a significant and growing market place for the solar energy industry.

DoD energy is segmented into basing power (mostly electricity), operational energy (mostly liquid fuels) and non-tactical vehicle energy.

Operational energy is consumed in forward-deployed situations such as Iraq and Afghanistan among other locations globally.  While a significant amount of diesel

Marines Expeditionary Energy Office Demo at Twentynine Palms, CA.

and JP-8 fuel is used to provide localized power and transportation (Marines = 200,000 gallons per day in Afghanistan), batteries are large part of the picture for soldier power.

A great piece in Outside magazine, “The Marines Go Renewable”, tells the story of how the marines are leveraging renewables, particularly solar, to keep their quick and lethal response capabilities. The main issue has been the Marines outrunning their fuel support systems, requiring a slow down and diminished effectiveness. The problem is the result of their using 3X the amount of batteries and fuel since 1998 to power electronics (command, control & communications) now common in front line operations. Photovoltaic solar technologies in various quick deployment and size configurations have enabled the average marine to reduce the amount of batteries and fuel required on the front line by almost 50%, which has significantly increased speed and effectiveness.

A great quote from the article: “Seeing a picture of a grinning Marine standing next to a still-functioning solar panel riddled with bullet holes makes it difficult to cast renewables as an effete liberal preoccupation.”

Eliminating batteries, winning contests.

Personally, seeing some of the products in use, such as foldable and packable solar PV chargers, has been satisfying, as I worked on these initial products back in 2004. At the Natick Soldier Systems Center, some of the first foldable and portable solar chargers took shape and the skepticism among most of the DoD energy elites and military was strong. The idea that batteries could be replaced by portable PV was a hard sell. As one uniformed person said, “when in a kill or be killed situation, batteries are the only way I trust to stay alive”.

Fortunately, these PV products have demonstrated that soldiers are more secure and can operate more efficiently and lethally.  They are now being deployed widely both in the Marines and the Army. A good example is their prominence in Katherine Hammack’s, (Assistant Secretary of the Army, Installations, Energy and Environment) recent Army energy transition presentations, which can found here. (3 minute mark)

After a recent presentation during a government renewable energy conference, I received a number of questions regarding why there was such a large difference between crystalline solar cell efficiency and a fully packaged and weatherized module. For instance, a 19% efficient crystalline photovoltaic (PV) cell, when packaged into a module with 60 cells results in a panel that is roughly 15% – 16.5% efficient depending on the manufacturer. According to the NREL, the cell to module loss is in the 11% – 17% range for most manufacturers.

Solar Module Packaging

The losses are a result of three distinct issues. 1) physical layout of the PV module and framing,  2) optical loss from encapsulation and glass, and 3) series loss from cell connections

The physical layout of the module affects the efficiency by having a large inactive area, meaning the space between cells, the edge of the module and width of the frame. The larger the inactive area of a module, the lower the efficiency.

The optical loss is a less straightforward problem and has a number of challenges resulting from the top glass and the encapsulation film.

The top glass needs to have low reflectivity so the maximum amount of solar radiation reaches the solar cells. The glass choice has to balance a number of factors including thickness, to meet hailstorm impact rating; tempering, to meet safety standards; and optical clarity, for maximum radiation absorption by the PV cells. A good, if technical overview here.

The EVA encapsulation film used to protect modules from moisture and the elements require a similar balancing act. These include letting the maximum amount of solar radiation reach the cells, while maintaining a near-100% moisture barrier with no significant expansion or contraction of the film over the 20+ year life of the module. And it needs to do this without creating an overheating of the module in hot climates.  A module with a high temperature coefficient (loss due to heat) is the

Copper PV Ribbon

enemy of high solar power production.

The series loss is due to series resistance in the cells themselves and in the cell and string connectors. The cells themselves are made from silicon, which not as good as metal for transporting current, and its internal resistance is fairly high, resulting in current loss.  This loss is compounded by copper ribbon (silver looking ribbon between cells) interconnection loss, and the cells’ series configuration in the module. While cells are put in series to meet a target voltage for a given module, this results in loss from the large number of connections.

There are a number of efforts underway to reduce this cell-to-module loss to 5% or less with novel approaches in all 3 areas. While the reduction to 5% has been achieved in national laboratories in an academic environment, the challenge always is to translate these new methods into a highly efficient manufacturing production line where throughput speed and yield (sellable product) are not compromised.

Solyndra was an outlier. It was a completely non-mainstream, highly risky technology commercialization play which had no technology history to support a reasonably quick, low-cost commercialization ramp.

An Automotive Outlier

The Solyndra technology and design was highly suspect from the moment it came out of stealth mode. Basic issues included round CIGS thin-film solar cells, which when deployed, had half the solar cell facing away from the incoming solar radiation. CIGS is still a developing story with many challenges on traditional flat plate modules, let alone a round tube. Optical experts found that the reflective claims (that sunlight hitting the white roof membrane underneath would reflect back at high intensity to the underside of the tubes) were highly suspect because of the loss of photon intensity during reflection. The high maintenance cycle for keeping the white membrane clean was another issue.

Of course manufacturing this type of completely new technology was expensive and Solyndra was selling at loss even before the recent crater in crystalline module prices. With scale of manufacturing always being the holy grail for reducing cost, it was hard to see how this would be accomplished without more investment capital in a company that already had $1B in investment capital. Raising additional capital with that cap table size would be more than difficult.

A PV Technology Outlier

The main issue for Solyndra and other new solar technologies that are not highly disruptive (through high exponential cost and performance advantages), is that it is extremely difficult to compete with the crystalline PV industry’s  40-year history and over $50B in cumulative R&D investment.  A complete explanation of this history and advantage can be found here.

The Solyndra event would seem to be another good example of herd mentality investing. Most people in the PV industry never took the concept seriously and mar veled at money as it poured in to Solyndra compared to far more worthwhile PV technology commercialization companies.

The one positive lesson that Solyndra taught was that different form factors and smart installation design can have a significant impact in desirability. Many downstream installers

Form Factor Lessons To Learn

and EPC companies were somewhat dubious of the technology performance.  With Solyndra’s pricing lowered to make projects viable (especially on roofs with weight limitations), they had the opportunity to work with the product and understand these advantages, and had significant enthusiasm for these features.  It’s a good, real-life product engineering test for the PV industry to take notice. Flat plate solar modules are not the only form factor in the future.

The PV industry has an incredible history in the last 7 years with average year over year growth of 60% through 2010. The industry is near $100B in revenues globally and employs millions of people throughout the supply chain both directly and in residual economic activity. The kWh cost of electricity from a PV system is now at or nearing grid parity in vast swaths of the developed world’s economies with minimal or no government support. (And doing so while competing highly subsidized fossil fuel, nuclear and hydro power) Solyndra is a mere blip in evolution of the PV industry and a complete sideshow in an industry that has been the fastest growing throughout the global recession. Unfortunately for the PV industry, the Solyndra story will continue to be a major political story as the 2012 election cycle ramps up and obfuscate this great history.

I took some time off from posting here as a result of a number of events.

Two dear friends passed away in late June, it was good time to step away and reflect on what is important.

In July, I ended my PV industry consulting practice and have taken a position with Suniva, Inc., an innovative American manufacturer of high performance mono-crystalline solar cells and modules. As Senior Director, Federal Business Development, I lead the company’s efforts in assisting civilian and DoD agencies who are diligently working to meet aggressive renewable energy and energy efficiency mandates. With our project developer and EPC partners, we are providing knowledge, experience and products for high resiliency, highly reliable onsite solar energy generation to meet these challenging timelines.

Suniva’s very capable management team is focused on high efficiency mono-crystalline cells but without the corresponding high price which has been typical for this cell type. Using novel intellectual property developed in the U.S., the company excels at innovation both at the cell and module level and on the manufacturing floor, resulting in lower cost to compete on a global basis.

I will be back to posting weekly again going forward. I will also be posting to my twitter feed, @ peacesolar, with specific news and content for my government and business partners in the near future.

In response to questions about how a solar cell operates, how labor cost aren’t a big component of the module price and the technology differences, following are a few videos that provide some answers and detail.

1) Energy 101: Solar PV

A great video for the U.S. Department of Energy on the basics of photovoltaic’s. Good visual on how a solar cell converts photons to electricity toward the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0elhIcPVtKE

2) Crystalline Module Manufacturing

Corporate video from Spire, a leading U.S. based module assembly company that provides automated module production machinery.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUO3MDH_4Qo

3) Crystalline Solar Cell Manufacturing

Somewhat outdated corporate video from Q-Cells (no longer 2^nd largest cell manufacturer) but gives a good view of the manufacturing facility.

Module Assembly - Stringer Tabbing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KECQS-W6xg

4) Amorphous Silicon Micromorph Thin-Film Manufacturing

Sungen corporate video (apologies for the background music!) with good visuals and narration on the process.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNwZrKR4gRI&NR=1

A Wall Street client recently asked about the impact of new distributed power conversion (DPC) products on the downstream solar industry. The PV industry rarely goes a week without a new market entrant or new product release announcement from this exciting new market segment.  Some think it’s a bubble that is going to burst as over 30 companies vie for a leadership role in DPC.

In a very broad sense, these new products take what is otherwise a dumb PV module and make it smart by placing electronics at the module level.

There are 2 types of products – DC to AC microinverters, which eliminate the need for a central inverter, and DC – DC optimizers that optimize string level output, and which work in concert with a central inverter.  A good review and comparison of these products’ pros and cons can be found here and here.

Externally mounted DC Power Optimizers

DPC products are well known for significantly reducing the harmful effects of shading on a series string by providing max power point tracking (MPPT) at the module level instead of relying on a central inverter.  They can also provide a number of other benefits.  Depending on provider, these benefits include correction for module mismatch, non-uniform module degradation, temperature coefficient difference and uneven soiling among others.   Sonme DPC products also provide detailed information on the performance of each module, the string and the overall array, along with environmental conditions monitoring.  System financiers really like this last benefit as it gives them unprecedented visualization of the system performance on a minute-by-minute basis.

DPC devices sit at the module level, either externally mounted or integrated into the junction box.  Recent entrant Sunsil, claims to do low cost DC – DC optimization at the cell level.

The question of value of these new products in lowering the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is becoming clearer day by day. While all of these devices put a load on each module of up to 3W, the overall benefit is evolving as the technology and architectures evolve.

Enphase Microinverter Before Module Installation

Enphase has claimed leadership in the microinverter segment for residential installations, and clearly adds value in ease of design and installation, and increased power output. Microinverters place an enormous number of electronic components on each module and have not been proven for larger commercial and utility scale installations where reliability is paramount. These systems typically increase energy harvest on a residential installation up to 15%.

DC optimizers show clear benefits on 10kW arrays and larger. Large PV systems leak value daily due to the

DC Optimizers for Larger Arrays

problems outlined above. Companies like SolarEdge and Tigo have first- offering products in this space. The extra cost and load of a DC optimizer product placed on every module seems to be more than offset by a large net benefit in energy harvest, lower system capex and lower maintenance costs. A thorough DC optimizer solution can provide up to a 20% decrease in the levelized cost of energy resulting in 1% – 4% IRR gain for the system owner.

While these relatively new products are showing value, challenges common to new technology remain. These include: Who has ultimate warranty responsibility when integrated into modules?  How do these products affect module and project bankability? Each product puts a load the system to operate, are there conditions when this could be a negative gain? With so many electronic parts spread out over thousands of modules in a larger array, is there a reliability issue (especially with microinverters)? Who owns the data captured from the array? How do you certify these products for safety and performance when no category exists within the current certification programs from UL and others?

These questions are being answered as the product group matures and operational history is analyzed. Clearly these new products add value and as they mature, and new, more robust product architecture emerges, it is likely they will become standard on most systems in the next few years.

Recent announcements by the U.S. Department of Interior regarding approval of large solar energy installations have generated a number of questions and a lot of excitement.

Solar Power Tower

On October 24th, U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar approved the $6 billion Blythe Solar Project to be built on 7,000+ acres in California’s desert region. Another approval came through for the Ivanpah Solar Project, which will produce enough energy to power the equivalent of 140,000 average American homes each year. The Blythe project will be the largest solar generation installation in the world, and is based on large solar thermal system technology with the acronym CSP.  This is where the questions come up.

Solar energy can mean many things to many audiences. A good recap of various solar technology types can be found here.

Solar PV Module Components

Photovoltaic (PV) solar uses semiconductors and other cell technologies to convert photon energy directly to electricity with no moving parts within the cell apparatus.  Cells are placed in series in modules of various sizes, and modules are designed into entire arrays for residential, commercial and larger utility scale systems.

Concentrating PV (CPV) uses various optical light concentration schemes and devices between the sun and the PV cell to produce more energy.  These systems typically require accurate 2-axis tracking of the sun.

Solar thermal technologies are used for a variety of applications. Solar thermal uses the sun to heat water for direct use in solar hot water systems, or heats special fluids for use in a heat exchanger.

Common small-scale solar thermal systems can be found on residential buildings to heat hot water rather than using electricity.

Solar Concentrating Dish with Sterling Engine

Concentrating solar power (CSP) usually refers to larger utility scale systems that flash water to steam at industrial scale to power turbines similar to those found in coal burning plants.  CSP comes in a variety of technology types including parabolic linear troughs, power towers and dish/sterling engine systems.

Both CPV and CSP require strong solar resources like those you’d find in the desert region of the United States or in North Africa. These technologies are not suitable to higher latitudes and intermittent cloud cover.

With the price of PV modules and installation costs plummeting over the last 2 years, PV is disrupting many long held assumptions about application suitability. High thermal heat CSP technology may not be competitive in many applications, as the installed cost and LCOE is higher in many instances than PV. A good review of the situation from Michael Kannelos at Greentech Media can found here.

CSP requires large installation sizes, frequent maintenance due to a large number of moving parts, and uses large amounts

CSP Linear Trough

of water resources in many instances. But CSP has excellent storage capability and still produces useful cycling well into the evening.

The other issue with CSP is large capital costs. In order to reach competitive kWh cost, these plants need to be large and cost in the $ billions, creating large financing heartburn.

PV has the advantage of being a direct photon to electricity generator with little complexity. Heating water and then using the heat energy to drive a turbine or sterling engine has built-in complexity in energy production, efficiency and maintenance.

Additionally, PV is modular and can be installed in stages. This reduces the financing heartburn as bulk capitalization is lower, allows the array to scale on a defined timeline, and allows for rapid installation.  In this regard, solar bankability may be more common for PV in the future.

Generally, all of these technologies have advantages and disadvantages depending on application.  And with global electricity demand 20X more than planned capacity, the time is now for large adoption strategies to be implemented.

Less Subsidies = More BOS Focus

Solar energy subsidy incentive schemes are being reduced globally, and PV module prices continue to drop at astonishing rates. This intersection of policy and market economics is creating extensive focus on lowering the LCOE metric via improvement in the balance of systems (BOS) costs. With lower subsidies, project developers are under greater pressure to deliver strong return on money to project financing entities, the ultimate masters of the solar energy industry.

While the PV industry is closing in on the elusive equalization with grid retail and wholesale energy cost,

Zep's Patented Auto-grounding, Drop-in Mounting Solar Panel Install Solution

creating projects with return on capital that financing companies will commit to financing en masse is requiring reexamination and upgrading of every component in the BOS category. This includes upgrading project development processes, system design tools and process, installation methods, shipping and logistics, array conduits and components, solar panel racking, inverters and monitoring systems, and operations and maintenance.  New technologies that harvest more energy from a PV system like distributed DC-DC optimizers, are key.

Gehrlicher Solar Panel Install Robot

A number of new tools are evolving which are creating a new LCOE-lowering ‘toolkit’ for project developers. Good examples include new system modeling software, robotic installation, simplified racking, easier-to-install combiner boxes and the aforementioned DC-DC optimizers.

Looking to the future, this developing LCOE toolkit will have a substantial impact on the solar bankability of all sizes of PV projects. It’s likely that a new level of performance, monitoring and cost will create projects which will confer more confidence and visibility in their financial performance, and be placed in a higher bankability bracket than other projects which are done using outdated BOS methods and products.

Back when polysilicon was in short supply and priced at $400 per metric ton (MT) in late 2006, many startup and early stage PV technology companies built their business plans on the assumption that this material would not go down much in price. One such company is Solaria which has had over $70M in investment capital from the VC community and strategic investment from German solar manufacturing powerhouse, QCells.

Solaria has a unique low concentration lens built into top glass of the module which is then placed on a 1 axis tracker. The concentration allows for less silicon cell material to be used in the module to produce the same or more energy than from a conventional module and at lower cost.  A smart solution to the market place conditions at that time.

Fast forward to 2009, polysilicon prices have dropped to average $50MT and commodity crystalline module prices have declined more than 50%. This situation has created substantial heartburn for companies like Solaria where the cost/performance ratio is seemingly eliminated especially when having to rely on trackers.

But good entrepreneurs adjust and innovate further and Solaria have done just that. A recent large investment coupled with an order for their distinctive modules from a tier 1 project developer has brought the company back from the brink. While pricing and other details have not been released, this will be an interesting story going forward.