PV Supply Chain Update for Week Ending 5/13/2011

Following up on my 4/22 and 4/29 solar energy supply chain posts, the average selling price (ASP) of the main PV system components is still in decline across all categories as demand weakens further and manufacturing capacity continues to build.

Solar Module Price Tracking

Many industry observers believe that pricing will stabilize in 2H 2011 as inventory is worked through now that the Italian subsidy program has finally been announced giving markets some certainty. In addition, other markets (U.S., China & India) should continue to ramp up. Whether these markets can ramp quickly is the main question.  With global 2011 demand figures ranging from 16GW to 22GW (Tier 1 Asian manufactures can supply 15GW) and manufacturing capacity heading toward 30GW, the picture is not good for module manufactures with high operating leverage and weak balance sheets. Overall, this is difficult market to forecast demand and supply chain pricing will continue to slide with this lack of demand clarity.

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